Russia is the largest global wheat exporter, accounting for 18% of worldwide exports, whereas Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest wheat producer, accounting for 8% of world exports. The worldwide wheat supply may be harmed when Russia assaults Ukraine.
As importers look for alternatives, financial sanctions or military intervention might have a big impact on food prices. Let’s look at the wheat markets in Russia and Ukraine, as well as the potential impact of Russia’s complete invasion of Ukraine on world wheat supplies.
Following the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the Russian government abolished trade restrictions, allowing farmers to enter the Global Market and invest in agricultural technologies. Russia is now the world’s leading wheat exporter, accounting for 18% of global wheat exports. Following Russia are the United States, Canada, and France.
Ukraine is the world’s fifth-largest wheat exporter, accounting for 8% of global exports. Following Ukraine are Australia, Argentina, Germany, Kazakhstan, and Poland.
| Country | Value in USD (%) |
| Poland | 2% |
| Canada | 14% |
| Russia | 18% |
| Australia | 8% |
| Germany | 5% |
| Kajakshtan | 3% |
| Argentina | 5% |
| United States | 14% |
| Ukraine | 8% |
| France | 10% |
The Black Sea is an important geoeconomic zone for Russia and Ukraine since agricultural and industrial exports are strongly reliant on the ports. Odesa, Kherson, and Mykolaiv are important international commerce ports for Ukraine.
Wheat and grain movements might be disrupted if there is a conflict, as the Black Sea transports 95 percent of Ukraine’s wheat exports in 2020. Importers may look for alternatives because food prices are already high owing to inflation.
Quarterly Wheat Exports from Russia
Russia’s wheat exports increased in every quarter of 2020, reaching US$ 4,111 million in the final quarter. Following a drop in wheat exports from Russia in the first quarter of 2021, the value of wheat shipments leaving Russia began to rise in subsequent quarters.
The table below depicts the dollar value of wheat exports from Russia from Q1 2020 to Q4 2021.
Egypt, Turkey, and Bangladesh purchased more than half of Russia’s wheat, according to our database. Egypt is the world’s largest wheat importer. Wheat is imported from both Russia and Ukraine.
Egypt spends about $4 billion every year to feed its population of over 100 million people. Turkey also buys a lot of wheat from Russia and Ukraine.
Russia’s Top Ten Wheat Export Partners 2021
Based on Russia customs import-export trade data and statistics, Sudan (4%), Turkey (21%), United Arab Emirates (2%), Pakistan (4%), Egypt (23%), Bangladesh (5%), Tanzania (2%), Yemen (2%), Azerbaijan (4%), and Nigeria (3%) were Russia’s top 10 wheat export partners in 2021.
| Country | Value in USD ($) | Year |
| Bangladesh | $408 Million | 2021 |
| Egypt | $1,796 Million | 2021 |
| Turkey | $1,686 Million | 2021 |
| Yemen | $174 Million | 2021 |
| United Arab Emirates | $146 Million | 2021 |
| Tanzania | $154 Million | 2021 |
| Nigeria | $207 Million | 2021 |
| Pakistan | $277 Million | 2021 |
| Sudan | $282 Million | 2021 |
| Azerbaijan | $284 Million | 2021 |
Ukraine’s Top Ten Wheat Export Partners
As per Ukraine’s import-export trade data, Indonesia (15%), Morocco (6%), Philippines (3%), Bangladesh (8%), Egypt (17%), Yemen (4%), Pakistan (7%), Tunisia (5%), Lebanon (4%), and Turkey (6%) were Ukraine’s top 10 wheat export partners in 2021.
| Country | Value in USD ($) | Year |
| Lebanon | $133 Million | 2021 |
| Philippines | $118 Million | 2021 |
| Egypt | $610 Million | 2021 |
| Pakistan | $258 Million | 2021 |
| Tunisia | $194 Million | 2021 |
| Morocco | $196 Million | 2021 |
| Indonesia | $543 Million | 2021 |
| Yemen | $144 Million | 2021 |
| Bangladesh | $294 Million | 2021 |
| Turkey | $208 Million | 2021 |
Wheat is the world’s second-most-produced grain, behind maize. It has been farmed by humans for ages and is used to make bread, pasta, and other packaged foods.
Other commodities, including edible oils, petroleum crude oil, metals, chemicals, and machinery, may potentially be harmed as a result of Russia’s ongoing military campaign on Ukraine.
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